Wet weather has hampered 3QFY24 production for a number of the Western Australian Gold Miners in our coverage universe. We have reduced our production forecasts for NST’s open pit operations at KCGM, Thunderbox and Carosue Dam to reflect the likelihood that weather impacted these operations during the 3QFY24. We lower our 3QFY24 group production forecast by 5% to 403koz and lift our AISC estimate 7% to A$1,837/oz as a result. NST is set to report 3QFY24 production on Tuesday 23rd April. We note that our forecasts remain within FY24 guidance ranges for production but are now 3% above the top end of the range for AISC. Gold prices have surged to record highs in recent weeks, which drive a 3% lift in our price target to A$19.50 and we reiterate our BUY rating. Progress on the KCGM mill expansion project present a key near-term catalyst for NST.
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