The Running of the Bulls is a famous festival in Spain where raging bulls are set loose down the streets of a small town, mowing down pedestrians in their path. We use this as an analogy for the current gold bull market, where a rising gold price is charging ahead, trampling over analyst’s forecasts and leaving gold bears overrun. It is hard to see the gold price retreating materially in the near-term given macro factors including negative real interest rates, ongoing COVID-19 impacts, low market confidence, rising debt (both sovereign and corporate), currency devaluation, a soft USD, uncertainty in the lead up to the US election and rising tensions in the South China Sea. All of these support gold as a safe haven investment. Argonaut has revised its gold price forecast and we now apply US$1,930/oz near-term and US$1,750/oz long-term (previously US$1,450/oz).
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