Severe rainfall events at Tropicana and Duketon are expected to have an impact on gold production in the March quarter. Tropicana appears to have copped the brunt of the rain, with ~310mm in three days. Roads were cut-off and we believe Tropicana is at risk of missing FY24 guidance. RRL indicated that a stronger performance at Duketon to date should enable FY24 group production to be achieved. We have lowered our FY24 group production forecast by 18koz to 419koz, towards the bottom end of the 415-455koz group guidance range. The lower production reduces our FY24 earnings forecast by 46% and our price target by 9% to A$2.00. We reiterate our HOLD rating on RRL.
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