MAC has released three-year production guidance for the CSA Mine. Copper production for CY24 and CY25 was broadly in line with our estimates, while CY26 guidance of ~50kt was ~12% higher than we had anticipated. Reserves and resources were also updated using lower cut-off grades, reflecting the improved operating costs, which drove a ~57% increase in contained copper in reserve, albeit at a lower grade. Incorporating the three-year guidance and updated reserves drives cuts to our medium-term earnings forecasts, due to lower grades, which are offset by a two-year mine life extension. Our price target rises 6% to A$26.00 and we reiterate our BUY rating on MAC.
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