Spot spodumene prices have continued to decline and we have lowered our near-term price outlook to reflect this. We believe a price recovery is likely to be rapid once the market swings to a modest deficit, but the cycle is likely to be shorter given the volume of brownfield capacity that can be brought on-line, largely in Australia. We now expect spot spodumene prices to peak at US$1,500/t in late 2026, which is likely to trigger a re-start of existing capacity. A return to a balanced market is then forecast for 2027 before the widening deficit pushes prices higher in the long-term. The changes have driven material cuts to earnings for the spodumene miners. We retain our positive view on the sector, with most stocks factoring in weaker spot prices for longer.
To access the full report please log in under the Research Portal at the bottom of this page.
Argonaut’s Research Portal allows you to access Argonaut’s wealth of Research, as well as view the Morning Note, an overview of the Companies covered and the Team.
If you would like to access our research please contact us to create an account.
