Author: Emma OBrien

The visit included a tour of the drill rigs currently in operation at the Mt Henry and Selene deposits, as well as an inspection of the previously mined open pits, which provided useful context for understanding the strike extent and potential scale of the project. The ongoing 50,000m drilling program is focused on testing for depth and along-strike mineralisation at both deposits, and the site visit offered valuable on-the-ground perspective on how that program is being advanced.

We would like to thank CEO Jeffrey Sansom and the Alicanto Minerals management and technical team for facilitating the visit, and for their time in providing insights into the project’s progress and near-term activities.

Access the full report via the Argonaut Research Portal here or contact your Argonaut representative for a copy.

Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed a significant share of global energy supply, transforming what was expected to be a year of surplus into one defined by scarcity and heightened volatility.

While longer term forecasts had pointed to easing conditions across oil and gas markets, escalating conflict in the Middle East is driving a shift from financial tightness to physical shortage. Low global inventories, strained logistics and limited spare capacity have left markets with few tools to absorb shocks of this scale, resulting in sharp moves across crude, refined products and LNG. Demand remains more resilient than expected, with industrial activity, power generation and petrochemical requirements continuing to hold firm despite early signs of pressure in more price sensitive regions.

This latest disruption highlights deeper structural challenges following a prolonged period of underinvestment, declining reserve replacement and constrained supply responsiveness outside key producing regions. With energy security still largely addressed reactively rather than strategically, we expect volatility to remain elevated and supply risks to persist, reinforcing the importance of molecules in the global energy system throughout 2026 and beyond.

Access the full report via the Argonaut Research Portal here or contact your Argonaut representative for a copy.

Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Together, these dynamics have driven cuts of 10-20% to producer earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27, with open pit miners bearing a greater cost burden than their underground counterparts.

On the gold price, the pathway to US$6,000/oz remains intact but has been pushed back by nine months to reflect the recent selloff. The structural drivers underpinning the long-term bull case are unchanged. On costs, higher diesel prices have prompted a 3-5% uplift to cost assumptions across the producer coverage universe for the remainder of 2026, with energy prices expected to begin normalising in 2027. These increases translate to AISC rises of 4-5% for open pit miners and 2-3% for underground operators.

Despite the near-term headwinds, the medium-term outlook for gold remains constructive, with the long-term price target and key demand drivers firmly in place. Price targets across the coverage universe have been trimmed by 10-15% on average, reflecting both the softer earnings outlook and the recent spot price movement.

Access the full report via the Argonaut Research Portal here or contact your Argonaut representative for a copy. 

Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Head of Argonaut Funds Management David Franklyn joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz this week to share his analysis on the resources sector, drawing on his deep experience identifying value across commodities cycles.

On gold, David’s view is that the recent sell-off has been fear-driven rather than fundamental, and that quality mid-cap producers now offer compelling entry points for investors with a longer time horizon. In his words, these are the moments to “start chipping away” at high quality assets.

For lithium, David sees the current geopolitical environment as a structural catalyst, arguing that the global push away from Middle East energy dependence will accelerate electrification and drive sustained demand growth.

Cautioning on oil and gas, David notes that even a swift resolution to the conflict would involve a significant supply lag, and that patient investors will be watching where capital rotates as value re-emerges across the broader resources complex.

Watch the full segment on Ausbiz to hear David’s analysis across the resources sector below.

The update raises that the market may be overlooking a critical consequence of these disruptions, namely the potential constraint on mine supply, particularly for copper and nickel.

Argonaut has upgraded its medium-term commodity price forecasts across copper, nickel and, to a lesser extent, zinc. For copper, a constrained supply environment creates a credible pathway for prices to push beyond US$6.00/lb. In nickel, Indonesian government curtailments on ore licences have stalled five years of surging supply growth, pointing to the need for supply additions from outside the region.

With key project milestones expected across several developers over the next three to six months, the sector is well positioned to re-rate as supply-side risks crystallise and the medium-term demand picture for energy transition metals remains intact.

Access the full report via the Argonaut Research Portal here or contact your Argonaut representative for a copy.

Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Thank you to all the students who visited the Argonaut booth at the UWA Careers Fair this week. It was great to meet so many emerging finance professionals who were eager to explore our internship and graduate opportunities and learn more about careers at Argonaut.

The level of interest and capability on display reinforces the strength of the talent coming through, and we look forward to reconnecting with many of you as we progress through recruitment for our next intern intake.

If you were unable to attend but would still like to explore opportunities available while you complete your studies, you can find further information here.

Demand for NdPr has strengthened meaningfully, reflecting its growing role in energy transition technologies and advanced industrial applications. Long‑term structural drivers remain intact, with accelerating demand across electric vehicles, offshore wind, robotics and AI continuing to shape a positive market environment. At the same time, the high level of supply concentration within a single region is prompting renewed efforts by Western governments and industry to develop more resilient mine‑to‑magnet supply chains.

With pricing strength building and strategic interest increasing, the sector is moving into a more favourable phase. The combination of market tightness, technology‑led demand growth and the global push for secure access to critical materials supports a constructive medium‑term outlook for rare earths.

Access the full report via the Argonaut Research Portal here or contact your Argonaut representative for a copy.

Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

It was great to speak with so many budding finance professionals at the Curtin University Careers Fair on Friday. Thank you to all the commerce students who took the time to visit our team, and congratulations to the winner of our stock pick challenge!

Participating in events like this is an important opportunity for us to connect directly with the next generation of analysts and advisers. Hearing about students’ aspirations, sharing insights into the industry, and discussing real career pathways helps us continue to build a strong, talented pipeline for the future.

We appreciated the conversations and look forward to seeing some of these students again as they take their next steps toward a career in finance.

Rising instability in the Middle East has added further momentum to the bull case, prompting an upgrade to our medium‑term gold price forecasts, which now incorporate a peak of US$6,000/oz.

While this materially strengthens the global outlook, divergence in interest rate expectations is driving renewed appreciation in the Australian dollar. Our upgraded A$/US$ assumptions, now expected to reach 0.75 by 2027, largely offset the higher US‑dollar gold price for Australian‑based producers, resulting in only modest earnings and valuation changes across much of the sector. In Australian dollar terms, gold price forecasts shift only marginally beyond the near term, reflecting the competing forces of geopolitical risk and currency strength.

Despite the currency headwind, the structural picture for gold remains firmly supportive. Elevated fiscal pressures and sustained central‑bank buying continue to underpin long‑term demand, while supply growth remains constrained. Together, these dynamics support a constructive medium‑term outlook for the sector, with higher global prices providing a strong platform for producers and developers as the cycle progresses.

Access the full report via the Argonaut Research Portal here or contact your Argonaut representative for a copy.

Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

The visit included an overview of the mining areas and an on‑foot tour of key processing infrastructure. Activity on site has accelerated in recent months, supported by the strong establishment of mining contractor Trollope, which has completed its permanent workshop and is expanding its fleet to improve mining efficiency.

Thank you to Paladin’s Managing Director and CEO Paul Hemburrow, Head of Investor Relations Paula Raffo, Chief Operating Officer Scott Barber, and General Manager Langer Heinrich Operations Andrew Poletto for facilitating the visit, and the team for hosting us on site and providing valuable insights into the operation’s progress.

Access the full report via the Argonaut Research Portal here or contact your Argonaut representative for a copy.

Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.