Primed for volatility | Base Metals Sector Update

The update raises that the market may be overlooking a critical consequence of these disruptions, namely the potential constraint on mine supply, particularly for copper and nickel.

Argonaut has upgraded its medium-term commodity price forecasts across copper, nickel and, to a lesser extent, zinc. For copper, a constrained supply environment creates a credible pathway for prices to push beyond US$6.00/lb. In nickel, Indonesian government curtailments on ore licences have stalled five years of surging supply growth, pointing to the need for supply additions from outside the region.

With key project milestones expected across several developers over the next three to six months, the sector is well positioned to re-rate as supply-side risks crystallise and the medium-term demand picture for energy transition metals remains intact.

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Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.