Rising instability in the Middle East has added further momentum to the bull case, prompting an upgrade to our medium‑term gold price forecasts, which now incorporate a peak of US$6,000/oz.
While this materially strengthens the global outlook, divergence in interest rate expectations is driving renewed appreciation in the Australian dollar. Our upgraded A$/US$ assumptions, now expected to reach 0.75 by 2027, largely offset the higher US‑dollar gold price for Australian‑based producers, resulting in only modest earnings and valuation changes across much of the sector. In Australian dollar terms, gold price forecasts shift only marginally beyond the near term, reflecting the competing forces of geopolitical risk and currency strength.
Despite the currency headwind, the structural picture for gold remains firmly supportive. Elevated fiscal pressures and sustained central‑bank buying continue to underpin long‑term demand, while supply growth remains constrained. Together, these dynamics support a constructive medium‑term outlook for the sector, with higher global prices providing a strong platform for producers and developers as the cycle progresses.
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Important note: This report may contain general financial product advice, and you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
