{"id":17806,"date":"2026-06-29T03:32:51","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T03:32:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.argonaut.com\/?p=17806"},"modified":"2026-06-29T03:32:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T03:32:52","slug":"sarah-kerr-ausbiz-oil-markets-australia-energy-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.argonaut.com\/zh\/sarah-kerr-ausbiz-oil-markets-australia-energy-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Sarah Kerr on Ausbiz: Oil Floors, Supply Deficits and Australia&#8217;s Energy Security Challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On oil, Sarah sees Brent&#8217;s mid US$70s level as a likely floor, with a significantly higher potential ceiling ahead. In her view, markets are currently pricing in a swift normalisation of Iranian exports, but with inventories at multi-decade lows and geopolitical disruption persisting in the Middle East, supply risks remain firmly to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Structurally, she points to a global shift among oil and gas producers away from growth and toward capital returns, reinforcing a supply deficit at a time when hydrocarbon demand continues to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sarah also cautions that a proposed 20% gas reservation on new LNG contracts risks deterring the new supply it is designed to unlock, and flags intensifying competition between LNG exports, domestic users and rapidly growing AI-driven data centre demand as a genuine energy security challenge. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Watch the full interview below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<video src=\"https:\/\/d3ocr0urz6zrlt.cloudfront.net\/0d4c70fe-0b68-45a0-b783-4d4c04832ec3\/vimondio_video_1920x1080_10000.mp4\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" controls=\"\" style=\"border: none; display: block;\">\n<\/video>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Argonaut\u2019s Energy Analyst Sarah Kerr joined Juliette Saly on ausbiz last week for The Close, sharing her analysis on global oil markets and the outlook for Australia&#8217;s key energy names.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - 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