Aggressive inventory drawdowns, weaker refinery utilisation and speculative positioning have capped prices for now, but underlying energy balances continue to tighten materially.
The report argues the supply shock will be prolonged. Damage across Middle Eastern and Russian energy infrastructure, extended field shut-ins, growing OPEC+ fragmentation and years of global underinvestment are weakening the system’s ability to respond. At the same time, demand remains resilient, supported by industrial and power sector consumption across Asia and Europe, alongside intensifying LNG competition ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Against this backdrop, Argonaut expects energy prices to accelerate materially into 2HCY26 as markets refocus on depleted inventories and ongoing supply risk. The report also highlights the growing tension within Australia’s energy system, balancing its role as a major LNG exporter against rising fuel import dependence and tightening east coast gas supply. In WA, tightening diesel availability is increasingly exposing smaller operators to disruption as fuel supply is prioritised toward the majors.
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