WGX has cut its FY25 production guidance range by 17-18% and increased its FY25 AISC guidance range by 13-20%. We had expected a cut to guidance, however the reduction in production was larger than we had anticipated, and we have lowered our FY25 production forecast by 11% to 340koz. The new guidance range implies 2HFY25 production of 172-192koz and looks comfortably achievable in our view. The rising spot gold price should see WGX generate stronger cash flow in the 3QFY25 and particularly in the 4QFY25, where production is forecast to rise to 98koz. WGX retains significant leverage to gold prices with a 10% rise in the spot price driving 20-40% upgrades to earnings and a ~30% increase in our valuation and we reiterate our BUY rating.
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