The latest spodumene shipment data from Port Hedland for the first two months of the 2QFY25 is running in line with the 1QFY25. This implies there is upside to our 2QFY25 forecast for PLS, which assumes a ~10% decline in shipments. We also forecast further declines in shipments in the 3QFY25 and 4QFY25 to reflect likely wet season impacts and suspension of the Ngungaju plant. We note that our production forecast for FY25 remains in the middle of the guidance range. PLS’s strong cash balance should enable it to complete the P1000 expansion despite the weak price environment and we reiterate our BUY rating, with a 3% cut in our price target reflecting the weaker price outlook.
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