NST’s share price has underperformed the gold price and its peer group over the past three months. The stock is down 15% compared to a 1% rise in spot gold prices. NST’s ASX listed peers NEM and EVN have seen share price moves of +9 and -5% over the same period. We believe the underperformance is driven by concerns that NST will miss FY24 guidance ranges. Our forecasts have NST delivering into its FY24 guidance ranges, albeit at the low end of production an upper end for AISC. Importantly, we forecast sequential improvements in production from all of NST’s operating assets with the exception of KCGM, which is the key driver of production growth for FY25 and beyond. We are reiterating our BUY rating but lower our price target 7% to A$18.30 due to the lower spot gold price since our last update and some adjustments to our longer-term cost assumptions.
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