Morning Notes

13/02/2019 - Argonaut Morning Note

US stocks gained overnight amid growing optimism over trade talks and a tentative deal made by American lawmakers to avert another government shutdown. The Dow Jones climbed 1.5% to 25,426 and the S&P 500 rose 1.3% to 2,745;  President Donald Trump says he is willing to extend the looming 2 March deadline for a 15% increase in Chinese tariffs if he feels a trade deal is close enough. As negotiators prepare for another round of talks in Beijing, it is expected that Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in mid-March to ink an agreement;  Copper registered a fourth straight loss overnight as concerns about the outlook for global economic growth weighed on base metals. Copper fell 0.7% to US$ 6,092/t; Global oil prices rebounded from a two-week low overnight as Saudi Arabia promised to deepen production cuts. Brent rose 1.7% to $US 62.58/bbl, as Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih says the Kingdom will remove a further 400,000 bbl/day of output in March

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12/02/2019 - Argonaut Morning Note

US stocks were mixed overnight as a round of U.S.-China tariff negotiations in Beijing commenced and lawmakers in Washington continue to negotiate a contentious spending bill. The Dow Jones fell 0.2% to 25,053 while the S&P 500 gained 0.1% to 2,710;  Official figures released on Monday showed that UK economy grew at its slowest pace in seven years throughout 2018, as the March 29 deadline looms without signs of a solution to end the Brexit deadlock; Aluminium and other industrial metals continued to fall overnight amid pressure from a strong US dollar and signs of softening global growth. Aluminium fell 0.1% $US 1,856/t with copper also falling 0.9% to $6,136/t;  Global oil prices fell to a two-week low overnight as a stalemate in US-China trade talks exacerbated concerns about global economic growth. Brent crude fell 0.9% to 61.56/bbl

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11/02/2019 - Argonaut Morning Note

Talks to avert another government shutdown over funding for border security deteriorated late on Saturday, impairing the prospects for a deal by Friday’s deadline;  Investors will be hoping the U.S. and China can put trade talks back on the road to a deal after President Donald Trump said he’s unlikely to meet President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline. Failure by US and Chinese negotiators to reach a deal by that date will raise the stakes in the trade war, with Trump threatening to double American tariffs on Chinese goods;  Gold rose Friday as global equities fell amid escalating trade tension, reinforcing the metal’s haven appeal. Gold climbed 0.3% to $US 1,309.8/oz; Global oil prices rose modestly on Friday as Investors were reluctant to take fresh positions ahead of US-China trade talks. Brent crude rose 0.8% to $US 62.10 

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08/02/2019 - Argonaut Morning Note

US stocks fell overnight as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won’t reach a trade deal to avert new US tariffs on Chinese goods. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both slipped 0.9% to 25,170 and 2,706 respectively as President Donald Trump said a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely before the March 1 deadline;  Brexit talks were pushed closer to the brink after Prime Minister Theresa May’s day of negotiations in Brussels failed to make any significant breakthrough;  Global oil prices fell overnight amid increasing concerns that a softening global economy will lead to reduced demand for oil. Brent crude fell 1.6% to $US 61.70/bbl; Major global steel producers are sounding the alarm over weakening conditions, particularly in China. The country, which uses half of the world’s steel is expected to see a fall in demand, the first contraction since 2015

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07/02/2019 - Argonaut Morning Note

US stocks fell overnight as investors weighed corporate earnings against ongoing concerns over trade and another potential government shutdown. The Dow Jones fell 0.1% to 25,390 while the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% to 2,732;  Iron Ore extended its rally overnight after Vale SA declared force majeure on some contracts, exacerbating concerns of a global shortfall. Iron Ore 62% Fe rose 2.3% to $US 87.30/t, adding margin pressures to steel makers who are already facing declining prices and cooling demand;  Growing concerns over a no-deal Brexit are colliding with a slowing UK economy as the March 29 deadline approaches. January surveys showing ebbing consumer confidence and a weakening property market suggest the UK economy is at risk of stagnating

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