Morning Notes

18/10/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

Most US stocks fell (Dow down 91 points) as a mixed bag of earnings and concerns over rising interest rates weighed on investor confidence. Treasuries declined as the Fed minutes appeared to lean toward further rate hikes in the future; Iraq shipped the lowest amount of crude to the US refiners in more than two years as more flowed to Asia and Europe ahead of impending Iran sanctions. WTI fell to $70/bbl after American stockpiles swelled for the fourth straight week; The US Treasury held back from stating China as a currency manipulator in its semi-annual report on forex rates, averting a further escalation of a trade war

read more...

17/10/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

US equities had the biggest rally for 6 months as earnings beat expectations. The Dow closed up 547 points, 2.2% in line with broader indices. Morgan Stanley +5% and Goldman Sachs +3% beat estimates as their investment banking businesses helped revenues surge, both saw improved revenues in equity trading; Commodity companies are beginning to feel the impact of President Trump’s trade policies and their earnings report cards will signal how well they have been able to protect shareholder value. Raw material producers are coming off their worst week in February following the longest quarterly sell off in commodities since 2015; Copper posted the biggest decline in more than a week as inventories rose and concerns over the impact of trade conflicts on the global economy gripped metals markets

read more...

16-10-2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

US equities were calmer on Monday night after the massive volatility of last week with the Dow falling 89 points, with IT and Energy sectors leading the market lower; The US has said it is undecided if Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will attend the Saudi Investment conference next week in light of the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi; Gold rose to the highest close since June on the safe haven trade. Chartists noted, this is above Thursdays closing price after US equity markets fell sharply that day. The USD was slightly weaker against most currencies, the DXY at 95.05;

read more...

15/10/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

Despite a tough week of lows and corrections, US equity markets snapped back on Friday with the Dow recovering 287 points; China’s ambassador to the U.S. said Beijing has no choice but to respond to what he described as a trade war started by the U.S. “We never wanted a war, but if somebody started a trade war against us, we have to respond and defend our interests”; Oil prices rose sharply this morning as Trump threatens sanctions against Saudi Arabia for the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi within the Saudi consulate in Turkey. Saudi Arabia, said on Sunday it would retaliate against any punitive measures with even “stronger ones,” according to a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency. 

read more...

12/10/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

US stocks tumbled for a second day, as major averages notching wild swings in heavy volume. Treasuries surged, the USD fell with oil, and gold posted its biggest gain in more than two years; The gold miners made a comeback overnight with spot prices rising as much as 2.2%, VanEck Gold Miners ETF up the most in eight months to 5.2% and mining companies continued a monthlong rally from February 2016 lows; Copper erased losses and nickel settled little changed as a decline in the USD took some of the markets focus off of a stock market rout and renewed fears for global economic growth.

read more...