Morning Notes

08/01/2019 - Argonaut Morning Note

Stocks in the US rose for a second day, with the Dow up 98 points (+0.4%) and the S&P 500 up 18 points (+0.7%); The US expressed optimism a trade deal with China can be reached; talks have a March 1st deadline; The partial government shut-down in the US drags on, and Trump will be addressing the Nation on Tuesday night; Oil closed higher for a sixth day on optimism a global supply glut will be avoided;

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07/01/2019 - Argonaut Morning Note

US equities jumped sharply overnight on good news from the jobs market and after the Fed chair indicated policy is flexible and officials are “listening carefully” to financial markets; US Non-farm payrolls were 312,000 (compared to an estimate of 184,000); the US unemployment rate is 3.9%; Expectations that there may be a pause in Fed interest rate increases sent the US$ lower against most major currencies; The Dow climbed 747 points (+3.3%) on Friday, more than erasing the 660 point decline the previous day.
 

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21/12/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

Volatility gripped US equity markets overnight as investor concerns mounted regarding the threat of a US government shutdown. The Dow Jones fell 2% overnight to 22,860 and the S&P 500 slipped 1.6% to 2,467; President Donald Trump will refuse to sign the Senate’s version of a stopgap spending bill that would avert a partial government shutdown as it excludes funds which Trump has demanded for US border security; U.S.-China trade tensions have weighed on copper miners in 2018 as fears of a global economic slowdown has overshadowed their fundamentals. Copper fell 0.2% overnight on the LME to US$ 5,978/t; Brent Crude oil fell below US$ 55/bbl overnight for the first time in over a year after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and President Donald Trump neglected a bill to prevent a partial government shut down. Brent crude oil fell 4.3% to US$ 54.77; Argentina’s government is budgeting for US$ 500m/yr. expenditure on lithium exploration as they push for a position to supply the electric vehicle market.

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20/12/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

US equity markets declined overnight as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for a fourth time this year. The S&P 500 fell to a 15-month low, decreasing 1.5% to finish at 2,507. The Dow Jones was also down 1.5% to 23,324; The Trump administration is sanctioning 15 Russian military intelligence operatives over efforts to interfere in the 2016 US election and the attempted assassination of a former double agent in the UK; The Trump administration plans to remove existing sanctions on aluminium producer, United Co. Rusal. The announcement initially sent aluminium prices tumbling overnight on the LME before finishing up 0.4% at US$ 1,928/t; Further progress has been made in easing the US-China trade dispute as China, the world’s largest consumer of soybeans, bought American-grown oilseed for a second consecutive week.; Oil prices climbed overnight on fresh news that OPEC will extend supply cuts in 2019. Brent crude gained 0.5% to US$ 56.52/bbl; Base metal prices were mainly up overnight on the LME. The largest gains were seen in Zinc and Nickel adding 1% to US$ 2,605/t and 1.1% to US$ 10,868/t respectively.

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27/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

US markets recovered from what was considered the worst week of trading for November 2018, the Dow Jones added 1.5% to 24,640 whilst the S&P 500 gained 1.6% to 2,673; The price of Iron ore has declined due to the sinking mill profitability in China prompting steelmakers to reduce raw material consumption, following slumps in crude oil and copper prices; Saudi Arabia responds to pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump to drive oil prices lower by increasing their daily crude output to 11.2 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg; Nickel decreased 0.4% overnight on the LME to 10,804 US$/t, the commodity is heading for a sixth straight monthly loss amid signs of surging supply from Indonesia and mounting concerns over Chinese demand; The Aluminium price is expected to face headwinds in the near future due to its large exposure to the automotive sector and the likelihood of further delays in U.S. Sanctions on Russia for Aluminium production, according to Bloomberg.

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