Morning Notes

15/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

Declines in financial and technology stocks, along with lingering worries about slowing global growth, dragged U.S. stocks lower overnight, the Dow Jones fell 0.8% to 25081 whilst the S&P 500 decreased 0.8% to 2702; Global oil prices increased for the first time in 13 trading sessions on growing expectations that OPEC may cut output 1.4 million barrels per day, the IEA has left is forecast for global demand growth for 2019 unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day; Base metal prices remained steady overnight on the London Metals Exchange as concerns over weak retail sales in China largely offset positive sentiment associated with better-than-expected production and investment data. Zinc added 0.8% whilst nickel fell 0.3%; Major currencies were stronger against the US dollar in US and European trade, the Aussie dollar rose from near US71.86 cents to near US72.35 cents in late US trade; The ASX fell steadily yesterday nearing October lows and underperformed the rest of the Asia Pacific, the ASX All Ords finished down 1.7% to 5822.

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14/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

The Dow Jones fell 0.4% to 25286 and the S&P 500 fell 0.1% as a resolution to the US- China trade war remained elusive and oil prices plummeted the most in 3 years, dragging the energy sector lower; Base metal prices were mixed on the London Metals Exchange, Copper rose 0.2% on reports that China and the US have restarted trade talks, Zinc declined the most by 0.7%; Natural gas futures jumped above $4 per million British thermal units for the first time in almost four years as cold shrouded most of the U.S., stoking concern that unusually low stockpiles will fall short of heating needs this winter; Kazakhstan’s ambitious plan to list stakes in its most-prized state assets is finally underway after the country’s uranium giant, Kazatomprom floated in London and Astana with a valuation of $3 billion; A sharp drop in commodity prices prevented Australia's stock index from shaking off sharp early declines, making it the worst-performing market in the Asia-Pacific yesterday, down 1.7% to 5923.

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13/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

 U.S. stocks started the week on a sour note, with tech shares tumbling. The S&P 500 fell 2% to 2726 whilst the Dow Jones declined 2.3% to 25387; The US dollar began the week higher as concerns over global economic growth led to an equity market sell off; The US Commerce Department is deliberating on whether to impose tariffs on automobile imports to protect national security; Base Metal prices fell by up to 2.5% on the London Metals Exchange with lead down the most; Nickel declined to a fresh low this year after stockpiles in China rebounded while the country’s steel prices remain weak; Economists are forecasting the People’s Bank of China will cut interest rates with reductions expected as early as 2019;  China’s Sinopec plans to boost natural gas supply by 18% for their coming winter to 18.2 BCM.

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12/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

US share markets fell on Friday as investors booked profits at the end of the week, the S&P500 index was down by 0.9% and the Dow Jones fell 0.8%; OPEC and its allies aim to cut oil supply in 2019, reversing a near year- long expansion, with Saudi Arabia reasserting its role as a swing producer, announcing fewer shipments from next month; China is set to provide their private sector with greater access to the nation’s mixed ownership reform by further easing investment restrictions, promoting projects in transport, energy and environmental protection industries; Base metal prices fell by up to 2.7% on the LME with nickel down the most at -2.7%, metals were down 3.9% over the week; The spot gold price was trading near US$1,209 an ounce in late US trade, the gold futures price fell by 1.3%; Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. logged 213.5 billion yuan ($30.7 billion) in sales setting a new singles day record.

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09/11/2018 Argonaut Morning Note

US markets were a lot quieter overnight after Wednesday’s rally, with the Dow lifting only 11 points and the S&P down 0.25%; The US Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate at 2.00% - 2.25% as expected, and is still on track to lift rates next month. The Fed reiterated, “Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year”; Oil continued to fall for its ninth consecutive day (Brent down 1.5%), as we enter a bear market having dropped nearly 20% from its peak five weeks ago. Supply concerns continue to ease as the US is named the largest global oil producer with output at record highs of 11.6 million barrels per day realised over the past week; Base metals mostly increased on the LME overnight with lead rising as much as 4.2% and zinc up 3.4%; The world’s largest lithium producer, Albemarle has opted to halt plans to expand its lithium carbonate production in Chile, after announcing yesterday it would focus on its Western Australian lithium hydroxide operations. The department of mines highlighted this view for LiOH, announcing that in FY18, WA produced $1.5bn worth of revenue from spodumene concentrate.

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