Morning Notes

23/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

U.S. equity futures dropped on Thursday whilst U.S. trading was subdued as a result of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday; Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping plan to meet at the end of November for the G20 Summit in Argentina with no guarantee of a trade deal, according to Bloomberg; The mining sector sell off in Mexico has worsened on fears of tougher mining regulation under incoming president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, this has weighed heavily on investor sentiment with top stocks falling for the third consecutive day; The British pound is set for its biggest gain in over a week as the U.K. and the E.U. agreed in principle to a draft declaration on future ties, according to Bloomberg; Nickel fell to its lowest this year (-0.4% to 10,902 US$/t) as base metals remained under pressure over growing concerns regarding a slowing global economy; Gold is expected to remain a safe haven over equity markets given the uncertainty over the U.K.’s withdrawal from the EU, the U.S. gold price gained 0.1% to 1,226.8 US$/oz overnight.

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21/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as sinking oil prices hit energy companies, tech hardware continued to plunge and retailers struggled to perform despite the coming Christmas season. The Dow Jones fell 2.2% to 24466 whilst the S&P 500 declined 1.8% 2642; President Donald Trump says he wouldn’t let the murder of U.S-based columnist Jamal Khashoggi jeopardize U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia, citing the potential impact on oil prices; Oil has tumbled below $53 a barrel, the first time within a year amid concern OPEC’s plans to cut production won’t be enough to offset a surge in stockpiles, oil futures decreased more than 7 percent in New York and London overnight; The Philippines and China have signed a framework agreement on joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea; China’s move to sharply curtail imports will have the greatest price impact on lower quality, sub-5,600 kcal/kg thermal coal as this accounts for about 95% of country’s purchases; Base metal prices were mainly down overnight on the LME with zinc and lead contracting the largest by 1.9% and 2.2% respectively 

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20/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

The Dow Jones Contracted 1.6% to 25017 whilst the S&P 500 declined 1.7% to 2691 overnight as investor confidence in the technology sector was shaken. Broader Investor pessimism increased on escalating trade tensions between the US and China; Russia is a step closer to tightening natural gas controls on Turkey and southern Europe whilst the U.S. aims to curb the expansion of Kremlin-backed energy projects; Oil prices gained ground as traders weighed countervailing signals about the amount OPEC can afford to trim crude production, futures in New York climbed 0.5 percent, after reversing direction multiple times Monday; Gold equities are gaining further investor interest as an index of miners tracked by Bloomberg intelligence recorded a fourth straight gain which is the longest rally observed since September; Nickel fell 1.6% overnight to 11,108US$/t (an 11month low) after the Philippines granted a reprieve to major producers who were previously ordered to halt production.

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19/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

The S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 2736 on Friday, however steep losses from earlier in the week pushed the index to its first weekly loss for November, the Dow Jones added 0.5% to 25413; US Vice President, Mike Pence sharpened U.S. attacks on China during a week of summits which ended Sunday, most notably with a call for nations to avoid loans that would leave them indebted to Beijing; The European Union is unveiling the first bloc-wide rules to prevent foreign investments from threatening national security, as Chinese acquisitions foster political unease; Aluminium producers will need to build additional smelting capacity outside of China as inventories are expected to run down over the next 2-3 years, according to Rio Tinto Group; Oil companies including Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc pledged more than $100 million to support private investment in the Permian Basin (Texas) and New Mexico as the region struggles with the effects of booming production.

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16/11/2018 - Argonaut Morning Note

U.S. stocks rose for the first time in six days, with beaten-down technology shares leading the rebound on speculation trade tensions will ease. The Dow Jones added 0.8% to 25289 whilst the S&P 500 gained 1.1% to 2730; The U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports in January of 2019, with president Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping likely at best to agree on a “framework” for further talks to resolve trade tensions at an upcoming meeting; Zinc rose to the highest level in two weeks as demand continues to outstrip production and inventories tracked by the LME sank to the lowest levels in a decade. Oil prices rose slightly as tension over U.S. sanctions against Saudi Arabia countered a jump in American crude stockpiles; UK Prime Minister, Theresa May has won the support from her cabinet for the U.K. and European Union to agree on the draft Brexit treaty; Gold prices are drawing support from a rebound in demand for exchange-traded funds backed by gold, countering a strong dollar and rising U.S. interest rates. The US gold price increased 0.2% to 1213.0 US$/oz.

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