MAC’s share price has come under significant pressure in recent weeks, falling 27%, compared to a 10% decline in spot copper prices over the same period. We attribute this decline to its exposure to US equity markets through the dual listing, which have been more volatile than the ASX. MAC recently confirmed its CY25, and CY26 production guidance ranges and our forecasts are within these ranges, noting that the 1QCY25 will be softer due to planned lower grades at the CSA Mine. Bringing the Merrin Mine into production remains upside to our base case for MAC.
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