MAC’s 4QCY25 result was solid, with production 10% higher than we had expected, although shipment timing reduced sales below production, which negatively impacted our CY24 earnings forecast. Average mined grades continue to exceed our expectations, and we have incorporated higher grades in CY25, which has lifted our forecast towards the upper end of current production guidance range. We also incorporate the development of the QTSS Upper deposit for the first time, which lifts our medium-term production forecasts to +55ktpa. A faster development of QTSS Upper presents upside risk to our CY26 and CY27 forecasts. MAC is generating strong cash flow at current copper prices, and we believe there is scope for an upgrade to the guidance outlook. We reiterate our BUY rating, lifting our price target 8% to A$24.00 due to increased medium-term production outlook.
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