We are initiating coverage on Greatland Gold (GGP) with a BUY rating and £0.17 price target. Production at Telfer exceeded expectations in GGP’s first month of ownership and we believe Telfer will deliver output beyond the current 15 month mine plan. We assume gold and copper production ~20% higher than guidance. The release of updated resources and reserves for Telfer are expected 3QFY25 and 4QFY25 and present key near-term catalysts for GGP. The world class Havieron project accounts for 56% of our valuation and the completion of a feasibility study later this year should confirm capital costs and the development timeline. We expect Havieron to cost A$1.0b to build, producing ~225kozpa of gold at an AISC of ~A$1,250/oz for ~20 years with first production in early FY28. Confirmation of capital cost and time to first production for Havieron also present material catalysts for GGP.
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