GMD remains one of our key picks in the ASX gold sector. The company boasts impressive organic growth, with its five-year plan set to more than double production to +300kozpa. We believe an expansion of the Leonora process plant is likely and already factor this into our base case, which lifts group production to ~450kozpa. Our Leonora mill expansion scenario limits output at Laverton to a peak of ~120kozpa due to the removal of Tower Hill. GMD is currently assessing the existing ore sources around Laverton that could enhance the production outlook for the project. We see scope to expand the Jupiter open pit reserve and adding a cut-back of the Westralia open pit as offering options to boost output at Laverton, and potentially underpin an expansion of the process plant, which could push group production beyond 500kozpa. We reiterate our BUY rating on GMD, lifting our price target 5% to A$4.40 to reflect the recent rise in spot gold prices.
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