EVN’s 2QFY25 result was broadly in line with our forecasts and the company has reiterated its FY25 guidance ranges. The Mungari expansion project has progressed faster than expected, with EVN expecting to commence commissioning nine months earlier than planned. We bring forward our ramp up assumptions for Mungari by a year to reflect this, which has driven 1% and 4% upgrades to our FY26 and FY27 group production forecasts. The improved earnings outlook and rise in spot gold prices has driven a 7% lift in our price target to A$6.00. EVN’s share price has risen 20% since early January and with the stock offering a modest 4% TSR, we are downgrading our recommendation from Buy to HOLD. Studies on the mine extension at Ernst Henry and the E48L2 and E22 developments at Northparkes are due to be released in the next six months.
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