We are initiating coverage on Evolution Mining (EVN) with a BUY rating and A$5.60 price target. EVN generates strong cash from its core assets at Cowal and Ernst Henry, which combined account for ~80% of asset cash flow. EVN’s higher cost assets at Red Lake and Mungari enhance leverage to the gold price, while group AISC benefit from copper credits from Ernst Henry and Northparkes. Major capital expenditure initiatives at all five operating mines should extend the mine lives to 2040, lifting group production to ~800kozpa by FY29. The investment in the long-term supresses near-term free cash flow generation, with EVN trading on modest FY25 and FY26 free cash flow yields of 5-7%.
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