EMR has reported an updated 3QFY25 production guidance of circa ~20koz for Okvau which is below its 25-30koz quarterly guidance and would be 33% below our estimates. The lower production result was driven by a reliance on lower-grade ore zones as cut-back activities restricted access to higher-grade areas of the pit floor. EMR expects the 4QFY25 will see a return to normal production rates of 25-30koz per quarter. We have updated our FY25 outlook 7% lower from 123koz to 115koz with our long-term outlook unchanged. Adjustments to FY25 production estimates are offset by gold price movements which lift our Price Target from $5.40 to $5.60. Buy Recommendation maintained.
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