We are initiating coverage on Coronado Global (CRN) with a BUY rating and A$1.00 price target. We forecast CRN to increase production in CY25, both via operational efficiencies and on the expansion of Buchanan and the accretive tonnes from the Mammoth Underground at Curragh. We also expect Mining unit costs to have peaked, with a reduction from US$105-110/t to sub US$100/t forecast in CY25. We are bullish on the medium-term price outlook for coking coal and note that CRN has significant level to coking coal prices. On our forecasts CRN has FCF yields of >10% from CY27 onward.
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