CMM has commenced a study to assess the potential to expand the Karlawinda process plant from 4.5mtpa to 6.5-7.0mtpa. The study comes off the back of a ~30% upgrade to the reserve estimate at Karlawinda. We believe the expansion has the potential to lift production at Karlawinda from ~120kozpa to ~150-155kozpa, with capital expenditure likely to be in the A$100-150m range. We have incorporated the updated reserve estimate and an expansion to 6.5mtpa at Karlawinda into our base case, which delivers 15% upgrades to our group production forecasts for FY27-FY30. CMM is now forecast to produce ~300kozpa from FY28-FY30 with the higher production rate driving 10-20% upgrades to our earnings forecasts for FY26 and beyond. We reiterate our BUY rating on CMM, lifting our price target 11% to A$7.80.
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