CMM has upgraded the reserve at its Mt Gibson gold project by 26% to 61.6mt @ 0.9g/t containing 1.83moz. We note that the upgraded reserve is broadly in line with our mining inventory assumption for the project. CMM has reaffirmed construction capex of A$260m but has lifted the pre-production mining cost by A$7m to A$86m. Securing State and Federal development approvals remains a key risk for the project. CMM has indicated it is expecting to receive a response from the DCCEEW on the permitting pathway in May. We have taken a more conservative view on the timeframe to secure all approvals and push back our development timeline for Mt Gibson by 12 months, with construction now forecast to commence in August 2025, with first gold production in September 2026. The delay to our development timeline drives material cuts to earnings for FY26 and FY27. However, this is offset by the rise in spot gold prices, which drives an 8% lift in our price target to A$7.00 and we reiterate our BUY rating on CMM.
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