BGL’s 1HFY25 result was mixed, with a beat in Ebitda offset by a material miss in Ebit, due to higher depreciation expenses vs our forecasts. The higher depreciation flowed through to earnings, which were also well below our forecasts. We have incorporated higher depreciation expenses into our estimates, which has driven non-cash cuts to our earnings outlook. BGL has reiterated its FY25 guidance ranges, which implies 2HFY25 production of 88-103koz at an AISC of A$1,750-1,950/oz. Our forecasts sit at 90koz at a slightly higher AISC of A$2,007/oz. Having downgraded its FY25 guidance range last month, delivering into the production target range presents a key near-term catalyst for BGL. We reiterate our BUY rating and A$2.00 price target.
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