BGL had pre-released 2QFY25 gold sales and its cash and bullion balance earlier this month. Gold production for the 2QFY25 was lower than we expected due to lower stoping grades. AISC data was released for the first time and was lower than we expected in the 2QFY25. BGL downgraded gold production guidance for FY25 earlier this month, with the AISC guidance range now increased by 9-14%. The increase in AISC guidance was less than we had expected, and we have lowered our FY25 cost assumptions to match guidance, which drives a material upgrade to our FY25 earnings forecast. Delivering into the new 2HFY25 guidance range is a key catalyst for BGL, while we also expect to see positive news flow from exploration results. We reiterate our BUY rating on BGL and lift our price target 12% to A$1.85 due to the rising gold price and stronger earnings outlook.
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